It's a short week, due to jollies and follies.
We live in a society
Crypto is a cult, (and possibly bad), but a lucrative and fun one? (Featuring the constitution and Ken Griffin and 18TB of jpegs)
Well, it's been a couple of wild weeks. With all the NFTs going on, a (copy) of the US constitution being bought by a pooling of ETH, the attempt being foiled by Ken Griffin of Citadel fame. That's not to mention an ATH, then a 10-20 percent pull back. It's all a wild ride baby, and I am glad I am here for it.
Since this diary/journal is to snapshot my beliefs, this is my current set of (unjustified and unbacked) beliefs in crypto:
Coins
For BTC, I consider myself a HODLER, a follower, but not a evangelist. BTC has existed long enough, built a large enough ecosystem, it is likely until bitcoin itself is proved to be insecure, will retain value, even if it's just brand value or a fraction of what it currently is. I don't really think it's a disruptive technology that will replace banking of the finance system or the federal reserves and the BOE etc etc, but as a purely digital asset class that's backed by an open ledger, with a secure track record, and quite frankly, the best origin story 1(Early 2000s IRCs! Missing Founder! Mt Gox! Snowden! Silk Road!), there exists value. Best of all, the halvening provides a predictable cyclic nature to pricing and scarcity, which adds to the allure as something to own (small percentage high risk).
But PLEASE exercise actual risk management. Do NOT plough money into things you either a. don't understand, b. don't want to lose. If tomorrow my BTC becomes trash hash, I would probably post about it, make it a dinner party topic, then move on.
DeFi
DeFi and Smart contracts are useful, but I don't see them as radically different from current finance? Claims on security and compound returns is definitely an illusion, as the former is as strong as your threshold to pain, and the latter is common bait; nothing that has not been done to death in regular scam worlds. From my experience of touching ETH related things, the UX is ok with metamask and so on, but the gas fee is a psychological barrier at best and a complete deal-breaker at best. Maybe it would be sorted by POS or other fancy POX? But then now you are going for something that's not proven security-wise. I must admit, this is the part I understand the least, and I am very open to changing my mind.
Eco system
Companies like Coinbase and Crypto.com is large enough o provide the regulation moat to keep on existing; and ultimately, we have inbuilt abilities to bring the wallet off centralised services like the above through cold storages. Now of course, whether people bother doing that is a different matter, but carrying a cold wallet sure beats carrying a suitcase of money. Now if you think that it's only use is illegal, I can't really convince you otherwise, but please ask, is all laws in all jurisdictions just?
Web3
NFTs and by extension web3 is currently a Fad, just like ICOs before it, just like central coins before it. I wouldn't call it a scam, I think people who buy NFTs seriously know very well what a NFT really is: a json with a hyperlink. Web3 is weird, because no one actually knows what it is. Does it involve turning everything into blockchain? Is it metaverse? Is it Web2 but everything is decentralised? Was that not how the internet works already?
I think it is a warning sign (for me) that if old tech heads are warning us against it, and VP types are pumping it to no end. I for sure respect old tech heads more, after all, without them and their attitude to openness and freedom, where would I be? Again, open to be educated and so on, but this does not pass the smell test for me at all.
I currently own a tiny spread of BTC, ETH, CAR, SOL and POL, and no NFTs. I am open to DAOs, but only if the DAOs are into a clear goal, and the leaders of the DAO is deanonymized.
Wresting control from Employment, Spyware, Shitty software, ownership of performance and your weird friends
The 2020s is just an exercise is understanding of little control you actually have, 2having sold all of it, at least all of your control in the internet and profiles and privacy and doing, in the 2010s. At least I hope the harry Potter quizzes were worth it? and what you can do to get back in the driver's seat. From employment, where it's getting slowly to a seller's market, especially in the west, to being forced to use subpar things, or even dangerous things. It is the beginning of freedom being an illusion, where cost is always hidden, and rent will always be attempted from whatever one does. But we must remember these self-explanatory principles:
- Creators and Do-ers will prevail
- Nothing is free, including our time
- Be kind to those close to you, be wary of the faceless
Clear eyes, full heart, can't lose
Other things
Optuna - I think so far this is the nicest optimisation library user experience wise. SKlearn is annoying to extend, and hyperopt is too fiddly. This one has the balance of features and nice-ness. Going to have a play with at some point.
Writing - A meta guide on writing non-fiction engagingly. Too long to read and digest right now, but probably well worth it.
Life - This should be a fun project. I think there are people in my direct past, where having this sort of framework to re-document their lives would be helpful. If you can't get to know someone directly, this would be the second best option.
